What’s Going On in Missoula’s Real Estate Market?

By Jason Baker

Jason Baker is the leading listing agent in the entire regional mls for residential and or total units sold, 8 years running. He is a tireless worker, and surrounds himself with the best admin and sales team in Montana...and the results speak for themselves.

What’s happening in the Missoula housing market? Today, I want to share insights into our local real estate market, providing you with actual numbers and statistics.

Inventory in Missoula County and surrounding areas. We currently have 400 homes for sale, with a previous high of 430. Sanders County has 85 homes, down from a peak of 100. Mineral County has 47, and Ravalli County has 265 residential homes available. This includes houses, condos, townhomes, manufactured homes, or regular stick-built homes.

We experienced a significant uptick in inventory during the typical May-June timeframe. Around August 1st, an additional 150 homes were listed in Missoula County. This may be because many sellers believed the prices were leveling out and wanted to list their homes before they had any further losses.

Market trends. Although we haven’t seen massive price reductions across the board, home prices went up quickly during COVID and have remained relatively stable for the last two and a half years, with some cases even going down.

Interest rates. The rise in home prices coincided with an increase in interest rates, which peaked at eight and are now settling in the mid-to-high sixes. The Fed rate reductions did not improve mortgage rates, so many potential buyers were waiting for better conditions. Unfortunately, it did not happen.

Days on market. Because of heightened competition, we are starting to see days on the market get longer. We will likely maintain these inventory levels through the end of December.

Market expectations. A slight drop-off in inventory is expected in January when many homes expire. On January 1st and December 31st at midnight, we typically see around 100 expirations locally, but most homes will relist immediately. We may lose five to twenty homes from the market.

If we have 400 homes in Missoula County now, we could see 500 to 550 listings. However, we’re not moving through inventory quickly enough because of affordability issues.

Some homes may have decreased prices by 5% or 10%, while others remain unchanged. This could be due to sellers being unwilling or unable to lower their prices. We are observing some short sales again, indicating a leveling market. I don’t expect a significant drop or rise over the next few years.

What does this mean for you?

For buyers, don’t wait for a low rate since nothing indicates that rates will decrease soon. We should expect 1% to 3% appreciation over the next few years, so you likely won’t lose money. While some predict annual increases of 4% to 5%, this is not enough for most sellers to hold onto their homes in anticipation of major appreciation.

Spring market. Expect higher inventory in the spring, which means sellers may net less due to increased competition and longer days on the market. I suggest you start your search now or closer to January 1st. Buyers have many choices now, and even more will be available in the spring. However, we will not likely see significant rate reductions that would motivate buyers.

Get your Thanksgiving pie. For my past clients and close friends, we have our pie giveaway coming up. You can choose between apple or pumpkin. To reserve your pie, please visit jbtrsvp.com. Reserve your pie now so you can pick it up the Tuesday before Thanksgiving from 11:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.

These are calorie-free pies—there’s no sugar or calories in the Jason Baker Team pies.

We appreciate our past clients and friends who refer business to us. Thank you for your support. In a down market, we had our best year ever.

Also, if you’ve considered a career in real estate, now is the time; we have more leads than we can handle, including incoming buyer leads. Plus, you can decide what you make, put in the effort, and see your hard work reflected in your payment. You can help refer people to us and help people create massive wealth through real estate. It’s the most rewarding job, which is why I have so much energy about it.

I would love to be your mentor if you or someone you know is looking for that. If you know anyone looking for mentorship, visit our website, jbtcareers.com, where you can watch videos about the real estate industry and learn more about our team.

Please contact us at (406) 552-7548 or jason@jasonbakerteam.com if you have questions about the right time to sell or buy based on your unique situation. We’re happy to provide a valuation and discuss netting more money on your home sale. We want to ensure you don’t spend money on things that don’t matter.

We appreciate the opportunity to serve you and thank you to our nearly 140 clients who chose to work with us this year.