Why Homes Aren’t Selling in Montana Right Now

By Jason Baker

Jason Baker is the leading listing agent in the entire regional mls for residential and or total units sold, 8 years running. He is a tireless worker, and surrounds himself with the best admin and sales team in Montana...and the results speak for themselves.

Missoula County now has almost 600 homes for sale. Just a couple of years ago, that number hovered around 200. Despite this surge in inventory, buyers aren’t jumping at every listing. What’s the reason behind this? It’s probably because six or seven out of ten homes are overpriced.

It doesn’t matter what a seller wants to get. What buyers see is whether your home is priced in line with today’s market, not yesterday’s numbers.

What’s happening to home prices? Over the past year, home prices in the average and median ranges have dropped 5% to 10%. Higher-end homes are still moving, which can make averages look stable, but the reality is clear: values are easing downward.

Looking ahead, prices could fall another 5% to 10% in the next 12 months, and possibly more in the following year or two. Selling sooner, even if the number feels lower than what you hoped for, could mean walking away with more money than if you wait.

Why does looking at the most recent comps matter? One of the biggest mistakes sellers make is relying on comps from a year ago. However, those numbers are already too high. The most accurate comparables are those from homes sold in the past three months.

Across Missoula, no home purchased in the past two years is reselling for more than the owner paid. That’s the reality of a declining market. Fair comps, not wishful thinking, should guide your asking price.

Listen to what the market is telling you. There are two types of feedback in real estate:

● Feedback from showings. ** ** Buyers walk through and say the home is priced too high, or they point out what they liked or disliked.

● Feedback from silence. If you’re not getting showings, the message is even louder: your price is too high.

For homes under $750,000, you should expect at least three showings a week. If you’re not getting them, it’s overpriced; plain and simple. Buyers know better than to think that a stale listing doesn’t magically become a “deal” in six months.

Why Zillow isn’t the answer. In Montana, sold data isn’t publicly shared, and that makes online estimates like Zillow’s Zestimate unreliable. They’re based only on active listings, which don’t reflect what homes actually sell for. Appraisers don’t use active listings, and neither should sellers.

The only way to know your true value is through sold comps from the last three months, ideally three to six solid sales that match your property type.

What is the role of your agent? It’s not an agent’s job to hand a seller a listing contract at any price the seller chooses. Ethical agents present pricing supported by sold data, even if that means walking away from the listing. Inflated prices waste time, mislead sellers, and keep homes sitting unsold.

Despite higher inventory, fairly priced homes are still selling quickly, often with multiple offers. Buyers gravitate to listings that feel logical and realistic.

If you’re considering selling, focus less on what you “need” or “want” to net and more on what the market says your home is worth today. In Montana’s crowded market, only homes priced right stand out.

If you’d like to know your home’s current value, even if you’re not selling, reach out. Call me at (406) 552-4443 or send an email to jason@jasonbakerteam.com. I can prepare a property analysis that shows your equity today and what’s happening in your neighborhood. The market is speaking, let’s make sure you’re listening.