How Accurate is Zillow’s AI Pricing for Home Sellers?

Why Zillow Zestimates Can Mislead Montana Home Sellers

It’s tempting to trust Zillow’s Zestimate. After all, it’s quick, easy, and feels official. But here in Montana, these estimates can be very misleading—and sometimes costly.

Real Montana Examples

Take this Frenchtown property: the homeowner listed his home at Zillow’s Zestimate of $575K. After reviewing comparable sales in the area, I knew it was worth at least $675K. He wasn’t interested in working with a realtor, and the home sold to the last client I had interested…meaning he lost about $50K by relying on the automated number.

In another case, a home was massively overpriced according to Zillow. It sat on the market for 3 years with 4–5 different agents, and it still hasn’t sold. The market has dropped since then—had the seller priced it correctly based on actual comps, they could have sold quickly and earned hundreds of thousands more.

Why Zestimates Miss the Mark

Zillow’s Zestimate uses an Automated Valuation Model (AVM) that pulls from public records, tax info, recent sales, and MLS data when available. But Montana is a “non-disclosure” state, which means sold property data isn’t public. Without access to real sold comps, these AI-driven estimates can’t accurately capture a home’s true value.

Even in states where sales are public, Zillow doesn’t account for condition, upgrades, or unique local factors—and it certainly can’t walk through your home to see its appeal. On-market margins of error are around 2.4%, but off-market homes can have errors above 6.9%. On a $600K home, that’s $40K or more!

Using Zillow Wisely

Think of the Zestimate like a weather app—it’s a forecast, not a strategy. For accurate pricing, you need local market insight, comparable sales, and a nuanced understanding of buyer behavior. Proper pricing isn’t just about the number; it’s about timing, marketing, and strategy.

Bottom Line for Montana Sellers

Zillow can give you a rough idea of value, but relying solely on it can cost you tens—or even hundreds—of thousands of dollars. If you want to price your Montana home right and maximize your return, a local expert with access to true market data is essential.

If you’re curious about what your home could realistically sell for, reach out today. Let’s create a strategy that gets it sold fast—and for the right price.